Over the next five years, the overall downstream growth of China’s xylene industry will slow compared with the previous cycle. The industry will shift from rapid expansion to a new stage of structural optimization and stable operation, with periodic fluctuations in supply and demand, and a clearer trend toward chemical-oriented consumption.

In terms of downstream capacity deployment, PX remains the main driver of expansion, with concentrated new capacity launches serving as the core engine for xylene consumption growth. Meanwhile, moderate new capacity in ortho-xylene (OX) will further underpin chemical demand. In contrast, the gasoline sector is entering a phase of capacity restructuring and optimization, with output gradually declining and weaker support for xylene consumption. Demand for solvents and other applications will shrink due to stricter environmental regulations.

The xylene consumption structure will undergo notable adjustments over the next five years. PX will steadily increase its share in total xylene consumption to become the dominant downstream sector. Demand for gasoline blending will continue to decline, while OX demand will rise moderately, and demand from solvents and other areas will shrink further. Overall, xylene consumption is accelerating its transition from fuel-based demand to chemical feedstock demand, leading to a more rational industrial structure.

On the supply side, new xylene production facilities will be put into operation steadily, with output moving in step with downstream demand. In the initial stage, xylene output will grow slightly. Supported by the concentrated commissioning of new PX and OX plants, downstream demand will surge and drive a visible increase in production. Later, as new capacity additions slow down, the industry will face growth bottlenecks, resulting in a mild decline in output.

Looking ahead, the xylene market will experience a cyclical adjustment: loose supply – tight supply – rebalancing, with overall output rising modestly. The industry will shift its focus from scale expansion to high-quality development, supported by deeper industrial integration and a greater emphasis on low-carbon, green and refined development. With continuous optimization of the downstream demand structure, the xylene market is expected to maintain stable performance and become more resilient in the long run.